The study is devoted to assessing the risks of cyber threats in the future based on expert sampling patterns. One of the key problems of modern cybersecurity is the dynamic nature of threats that change under the influence of technological progress and socio-economic factors. In this context, the authors consider a methodological approach that involves the use of a multi-level analysis of expert opinions. The main emphasis is placed on taking into account the different points of view, experience and professional activities of experts from the public, private and academic sectors. An important stage of the study is the procedure of data cleaning to form a representative sample that takes into account only logically consistent responses of experts. The paper focuses on the integration of the expert sample patterns‘ features. The key differences in threat assessments between different groups of experts depending on their professional role and experience are identified. This made it possible to formulate comprehensive recommendations for strategic cyber risk management focused on both short-term and long-term priorities. The study makes a significant contribution to understanding the peculiarities of cyber risk assessment through the use of multivariate analysis of expert opinions. The proposed methodology allows not only to improve the quality of forecasts of future cyber threats, but also contributes to the creation of adaptive cybersecurity strategies that take into account the specifics of each sector. The findings of the study emphasize the importance of a multidimensional approach to analyzing cyber threats, taking into account the specifics of each expert group. Integration of assessments and consideration of local peculiarities are key to the development of adaptive and effective cyber defense strategies focused on global and local challenges.

The paper focuses on the study of cyber security in Ukraine and creation of a predictive model for reducing the risk of identified cyber threats. Forecasting is performed using a linear regression model, taking into account the optimal dependence of specific threats in the field of cyber security of Ukraine on variables characterizing capabilities / vulnerabilities of cyber security. An unique empirical base was used for the analysis, which was formed on the basis of an expert survey of the cyber security system’s subjects in Ukraine. In order to increase the representativeness of the research, based on the selection of reliable expert population, data cleaning is provided. Methodological research is based on a risk-oriented approach, which provided a risk assessment of the spread of cyber threats and, on this basis, the determination of capabilities / vulnerabilities of the cyber security system in Ukraine. The value of the research is formed not only by assessing the risks of the spread of cyber threats, but by a more in-depth analysis of the dependence of the cyber threats’ level on the vulnerability of the cyber security system based on the search for optimal and statistically significant relationships. The experiment was conducted on the basis of determining the optimal model for forecasting the risk of the spread of one of the most significant threats in Ukraine – data confidentiality breach (54.67%), depending on the variables that characterize the capabilities / vulnerabilities of the cyber security system in Ukraine. The experiment showed that the optimal model emphasizes the predictors characterizing the vulnerability of the organizational cyber security system – "Departmental level of cybersecurity monitoring" and capabilities: "The level of use of risk management approaches at the operational level" and "The level of methodological support for cybersecurity of the critical infrastructure system".